What’ll happen if they are elected U.S. president?
Kim Hyun-wookThe author is president of the Sejong Institute. The U.S. presidential election is only 12 days away. In this election, the hot buttons are the economy, migrants, abortion rights and foreign policy. But what holds the key to an election victory will be the voter turnouts in swing states, not the voting rates. If Donald Trump wins the race — and if the Republican Party dominates both the Senate and House — his administration will likely implement policies swiftly.
U.S. foreign policy will change significantly depending on who — Trump or Democratic candidate Kamala Harris — wins the election. If Harris wins, she will inherit most of President Joe Biden’s foreign policies — such as maintaining America’s global leadership, upholding democratic systems and reinforcing alliances. Basically, Harris sees international politics as a clash between democracy and authoritarianism, but Trump prioritizes U.S. interests over U.S. leadership on global affairs. As he values America more than its relations with allies, he will put more focus on building alliances based on the sacrifice of U.S. allies rather than on leading a global coalition at the cost of U.S. interests. A big change will be unavoidable if Trump wins the election.
With regard to the Ukraine war, Harris will continue military support for Ukraine, as seen in her previous pledge to provide $1.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine. Given the fatigue over the protracted war, however, continuous military support will pose a challenge to Harris. She wants to push for a peace negotiation to ensure the sovereignty, territory and security of Ukraine, but lacks a concrete action plan.
Trump would end the Ukraine war “within 24 hours of his re-election” by striking a compromise with Russia. The Trump camp already drafted a plan to end the war. Trump says his administration will provide Ukraine with military weapons and economic aid under the condition that Ukraine surrenders its Russian-occupied territories to Russia. Trump also warned that if Moscow refuses a negotiation, Washington will augment its military support for Ukraine.
How will the two candidates’ Middle East policy differ? In the initial stage of the Israel-Hamas war, the Biden administration supported Israel’s right of self-defense and its annihilation of Hamas. But since March, Washington has shifted to an immediate ceasefire and humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Harris’s Middle East policy is similar to Biden’s. If she is elected president, she will likely push for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the region, oppose the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and most likely restrict exporting sophisticated weapons to Israel. But if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in office, she will have trouble drawing an early ceasefire.
Trump shows a blatant pro-Israel bias. During his first term, he vowed to recognize Jerusalem as the new capital of Israel and relocated the U.S. Embassy in Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. In a TV debate, he even said, “Israel will be wiped off the face of the earth” if Harris wins the election.
On the China policy, both candidates maintain a strong position. Harris, who will inherit Biden’s policy, wants the United States to win the ongoing hegemony war with China. As a Senator, she co-sponsored a bill to support the human rights of Uyghurs in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Harris will also uphold the “small-yard, high-fence” strategy — aimed at blocking technology leaks to China — by raising “targeted tariffs” on Chinese steel, aluminum, chips, electric vehicles, solar cells and pharmaceuticals. She will restrict the export of AI chips, their production equipment and quantum computing technology to China. She will succeed the Biden administration’s “de-risking” or “partial decoupling” from China.
Trump is even tougher than Harris on China. He will revoke China’s most favored nation status and pursue the “big-yard, high-fence” strategy by levying at least 60 percent tariff on all imports from China, which translates into a “broad decoupling” from China. Trump would stop importing daily necessities from China in phases and prevent China from purchasing real estate and other businesses in the United States in a move to terminate America’s reliance on China.
On their Korean Peninsula policy, Harris will bolster Biden’s policy to strengthen deterrence against North Korea based on the alliance. Instead of seeking direct dialogue with the North, she will concentrate on deterring it from provoking South Korea through the trilateral security apparatus, including Japan.
But Trump will take a different approach. He will certainly manage security risks from North Korea and give Pyongyang excessive incentives — such as easing sanctions on the North — in return for a freeze in its nuclear development programs. Given the possibility of Trump demanding a renegotiation on sharing the defense cost, he will weaken the decades-old alliance critically.
A weakened alliance amid North Korea’s dispatch of combat troops to Russia to help it fight against Ukraine poses a serious security risk to South Korea. Despite the Trump campaign’s logic that an end to the war will lead to a weakened tie between Russia and North Korea, the North-Russia alliance will hardly diminish.
What matters for us is to devise effective solutions to deal with our growing security risks based on each scenario. While Harris will bring security to South Korea, Trump will deliver dramatic changes. We must devise detailed strategies to transform changes into opportunities. After the waning U.S.-led security assurance and the resurfacing of America First, Japan and Europe are beefing up their capabilities to defend themselves while trying to maintain and augment their alliance with Uncle Sam. The time has come for South Korea to maximize its strategic interests amid the turbulence in the global order.
Translation by the Korea JoongAng Daily staff.